[Manifold Plays Chess 3] Move 10: What will white play?

Basic

Ṁ230

resolved Mar 27

100%65%

Qxf3

19%Other

13%

1.6%

gxf3

1.6%

0.0%

What will white (Manifold) play in move 10?

Check the game here: https://lichess.org/GF9YULQP

The game so far: 1. e4 e5 2. Bc4 Nf6 3. Nc3 Nc6 4. Nf3 Nxe4 5. Nxe4 d5 6. Bd3 dxe4 7. Rg1 Bf5 8. Bb5 exf3 9. Bxc6+ bxc6

market for previous move:

For each response, the average probability in the last four hours before close is measured. With 75% probability, two moves will be randomly drawn, with weight proportional to those market probabilities. With 25% probabilities, three moves will be randomly drawn in the same way. Then for each of the two or three candidate moves, a conditional market is created.

The score of each move will be determined by the average probability in the last 4 hours. The move with higher score will be chosen (and the corresponding condditional market will resolve to the score one move later. The other market(s) will resolve N/A).

More details here:

https://manifold.markets/harfe/will-white-win-in-manifold-plays-ch

Any resign moves or draw offeers are not allowed in this move!

Invalid moves or duplicate moves will be removed from consideration.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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https://manifold.markets/harfe/manifold-plays-chess-3-if-we-play-1-ca33ec4c67de Qxf3
https://manifold.markets/harfe/manifold-plays-chess-3-if-we-play-1-b218f9f148fa d3

@harfe your random number is: 518629054

Salt: Ivaw5sFbg9V09mTpvt5a, round: 2813291 (signature 8c75b0bae84fb96c9c9dae29049cc5b5c2d689a078f1162dcaf7cd000263c2a02fc37d99178388cd5c5b2a541eb596c9025005b4b60e416489387749c3fa5dd0e6758cb36d392ce8398e65a49b5e592f19ad775ab0b12642c0bf298fda039a4e)