I tied for the last spot and lost the tiebreaker 😕

@hannah :(
How is the tie broken? Who won?

@hannah what's the tiebreaker

Oh no :(

The trees are coming into leaf
Like something almost being said;
The recent buds relax and spread,
Their greenness is a kind of grief.

NOOOOOOOOO T_T

why do i keep losing all my mana betting on positive things

joever bidone

number 1 girl in the world atm

@astyerche If China/Russia/Korea don't send a girl then probably.

jwan orz

@DottedCalculator Is she on manifold?

@nathanwei yes

How are ties broken?

🦊 🥇

@DottedCalculator https://manifold.markets/nathanwei/will-hannah-fox-get-2-problems-on-e

According to current predictions, Hannah is 6th, one point above 7th.

@DottedCalculator What exactly caused the market to go from ~25% right after USAMO to ~50% now? Did more information come out?

@nathanwei We were able to collect a bit more information on USAMO scores/partials, also a bunch of people lost huge amounts of points on RMM/APMO, including two people who could have made IMO.

@DottedCalculator Ok. Betting a bit on yes as I think the correct prob is more like 60%.

Right, so predicted cutoff is 85: https://manifold.markets/hannah/what-will-be-the-cutoff-for-the-202

APMO is weighted by .6 so this is 82.4 ... frustratingly close I guess in expectation, one APMO problem off? Anyway, good luck, you have another year.

@nathanwei Thanks

@hannah By the way, is there a chance that this resolves yes without you getting top 6 on TST? For instance people might decline. Do you think that no one will decline, as usual? What is the base rate of declining?

Also, if a girl is 7th by a point or two the MAA could use their "special discretion" to put her on the team. This has not happened before, but the MAA is much more "woke" than it used to be and historically there have not been many girls within striking distance. This is not a great thing to talk about, and probably not a fun way to make the IMO team, but maybe but it's a possibility. I don't think gender should play a role in IMO selection. But then again I am not sure if given its format the APMO should either, so don't sweat it too much if this does happen. When I made the team, the APMO did not count, it was just Dec/Jan TST, RMM, and USAMO. So you would definitely have been top 6.

Perhaps it's in bad taste to bet on personal decisions of the top 6 and the political decisions of the MAA, but you already did make this market and these things do affect your life and the price of this market. I think the people betting should take into account these edge cases. Anyway, good luck. I am sure you would do well on the IMO if sent.

Wait, why the sudden drop? USAMO isn't for another week or so. No new update.

@nathanwei APMO was today, but the "no" buying wasn't by a tst grouper