You might like this market: https://manifold.markets/nathanwei/what-will-happen-at-imo-2025?play=true

Base rates are something like 75% for a gold medal for Team USA. Normally I would update down to something like 65% since it's your first time and you got 6th place in TST. But you seem pretty good in general, and the 6th place was because of USAMO day 1, and USAMO has some weird problems that aren't so representative of IMO. So I'm around 75%.