I will resolve this if a multiple month (minimum 3) ceasefire happens before the end of 2024
Worth mentioning that this market can resolve No as early as October 1st given the clarification that the three month period has to end by 2024.
@grofigaszadosijv can you confirm just in case?
Define ceasefire. Likeliest outcome seems to be Hamas dismantled and a new governing body installed (with which Israel is not officially at war, but with Israel never making a formal ceasefire with Hamas), but still occasional bursts of terrorism or counterterrorism operations. Not sure how you'd count that.
@ShakedKoplewitz I would count it as an official announcement by the Israeli government (or another government that's involved in the war) that says they are ending the war/doing a ceasefire.