Will there be a ceasefire in Gaza by Eoy 2024?
129
556
Ṁ11KṀ1.3K
2025
70%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I will resolve this if a multiple month (minimum 3) ceasefire happens before the end of 2024
Get Ṁ200 play money
Related questions
Sort by:
Define ceasefire. Likeliest outcome seems to be Hamas dismantled and a new governing body installed (with which Israel is not officially at war, but with Israel never making a formal ceasefire with Hamas), but still occasional bursts of terrorism or counterterrorism operations. Not sure how you'd count that.
@ShakedKoplewitz I would count it as an official announcement by the Israeli government (or another government that's involved in the war) that says they are ending the war/doing a ceasefire.
Related questions
Will Gaza be de facto controled by Israel at the end of 2024?
34% chance
Will there be a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war that lasts a month or longer and starts before July 2024?
46% chance
Will the current Israel-Palestine conflict end in 2024?
24% chance
Will there be a massacre around the new Gaza port in 2024?
42% chance
Will Hamas surrender by the end of 2024
8% chance
Will the Israel/Hamas conflict conclusively end in 2024 ?
34% chance
Will Israel announce victory over Hamas in 2024?
76% chance
Will the blockade on Gaza end before 2026?
49% chance
Will Israel declare victory against Hamas in 2024?
83% chance
Will Biden publicly call for a permanent ceasefire in Gaza by the end of 2024?
44% chance