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MANIFOLD
Will Israel rescind their order to evacuate?
9
Ṁ170Ṁ4.5k
resolved Oct 14
Resolved
NO

https://www.axios.com/2023/10/13/israel-gaza-hamas-evacuate-un-ground-operation

This market will resolve NO if the duration of the evacuation order expires without Israel rescinding the order.

  • If Israel rescinds the order at any time in the first 24hrs, this market resolves YES.

  • If Israel extends the evacuation order to 48hrs and does not rescind the order before 48hrs are up, this market resolves NO.

  • If Israel extends the evacuation order to 48hrs and rescinds the order after 36hrs have passed, this market resolves YES.

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It's been 24h and as far as I can tell, the order still stands without having been extended. Going to leave this open for a bit before resolving NO in case there are objections.