Will there be an Ariane 6 launch attempt (excluding scrubs) before 2024-07-01?
11
91
Ṁ495Ṁ1k
Jun 30
25%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves to YES if there is a launch attempt of a full stacked Ariane 6 where at least one solid rocket boosters is ignited before 2024-07-01 (UTC).
What happens afterwards (e.g., clearing the tower, booster separation, explosion, ...) does not matter.
I may bet in this market.
Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:
https://advanced-television.com/2024/03/27/ariane-6-update-from-esa/
scheduled for between June 15th – July 31st [...] ESA says all is currently working to schedule
Related questions
Will a manned interstellar mission be launched before January 1, 2060?
18% chance
Will Ariane 6 successfully deliver a payload to orbit on its first flight?
75% chance
Will the Ariane 6 rocket reach orbit before July 1st 2024?
24% chance
Will Ariane 7 fly before 2040?
56% chance
Will there be a crewed mission to Lunar orbit before 2027?
66% chance
Will Artemis II launch before 2027?
70% chance
Will there be a crewed mission to Lunar orbit before 2026?
25% chance
Will there be a crewed mission to Jupiter before 2060?
27% chance
Will there be an Ariane 6 launch attempt (excluding scrubs) before 2025?
81% chance
Will the Ariane 6 rocket reach orbit before 2025?
73% chance