Resolves YES as soon as Manifold reaches a 7-day average of at least 2000 Daily Active Users.
Resolves NO otherwise.
The data source will be the stats page! For reference, on May 3, i see 1032 DAUs.
An attempt at asking: Will manifold be able to retain the influx of new users and keep growing?
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ312 | |
| 2 | Ṁ127 | |
| 3 | Ṁ94 | |
| 4 | Ṁ68 | |
| 5 | Ṁ66 |
People are also trading
It took me a while to come up with a projection that matches this market %.... Basically, it does look like this market will resolve tomorrow, assuming the number of signups ~doubles for the second of half of the day compared to the first half of the day (which it did yesterday). I've gotten this type of market wrong more than once though. Here is my analysis:
https://github.com/JRPdata/wastebook/blob/main/will-manifold-reach-2000-dau-7d-ave
Edit: Updated analysis. Manifold needs the superconductor boom to continue to resolve YES. So, if traders want it to resolve YES, traders need to promote Manifold either today, or on another good opportunity 4 days from now:
https://github.com/JRPdata/wastebook/blob/main/will-manifold-reach-2000-dau-7d-ave