Resolves YES as soon as Manifold reaches a 7-day average of at least 1100 Daily Active Users.
Resolves NO otherwise.
The data source will be the stats page! For reference, on May 3, i see 1032 DAU
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ1,335 | |
| 2 | Ṁ801 | |
| 3 | Ṁ273 | |
| 4 | Ṁ140 | |
| 5 | Ṁ128 |
Currently:
(1731 + 1057 + 943 + 841 + 784 + 909 + 845) / 7 = 1015.7 (manifold rounds up to 1016)
For tomorrow to make 1100 DAU, the number of AU would need to be = (1100 * 7) - (1731 + 1057 + 943 + 841 + 784 + 909) = 1435
D1 for Retention on the stats page show Jul 26 is 41% (sharp drop from 60% on July 25).
If we consider the Active users for today as 1731, and the threshold to resolve YES as 1435, this means the number should be 82% retention for tomorrow (this assumes we don't get any new users to contribute as AU above replacement).
This seems too high for the scenario of a short term boom. (Or am I misunderstanding Retention?) If we assume that the boom of new users has already peaked, I don't know how it will reach 1435 AU tomorrow, and resolve YES. So I am betting to resolve NO, as there are only 4 days left. Maybe there will be more social media influence in that time, or I am wrong about my guess that it has peaked, so I am limited in my bet.
@parhizj Got this wrong! Should resolve YES I think, @firstuserhere . The boom has continued, the retention didn't go up high to 82% but it didn't drop either. There must be new users still coming in I think:
