This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 10k NO shares at close
57
closes Sep 23
90%
chance

b e n e v o l e n c e

also, resolves NO if the conditions are not met

(holding >=10k NO shares at the time of close)

Only human shareholders will count.

Get Ṁ500 play money

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Sort by:
NoyaV avatar
Noyapredicts NO

So if all users holding 10k NO shares sell 1 of their shares and drop down to 9999 right before the market closes, everyone holding NO wins?

2 replies
jskf avatar
jskfpredicts YES

yes 🙂

brubsby avatar
brubsbypredicts YES

but you can trust me, if you fill my 102 limit order i'll hold all the no shares i get

ScipioFabius avatar
Scipio Fabiuspredicts NO

Aight, 20k market next yes? :D

1 reply
firstuserhere avatar
firstuserherepredicts NO

@ScipioFabius 15k first :)

JackIngram avatar
Jack Ingrambought Ṁ25 of YES

Why hasn't this resolved yet?

6 replies
firstuserhere avatar
firstuserherepredicts NO

@JackIngram From the description:

holding >=10k NO shares at the time of close

Edit: Clarified in the title.

JackIngram avatar
Jack Ingrampredicts YES

@firstuserhere So all of my money is in @Joshua 's hands 😬

Fion avatar
Fionpredicts YES

@JackIngram unless you make a deal with pancakes...

JackIngram avatar
Jack Ingrambought Ṁ10 of YES

@Fion I have no money...

Stralor avatar
Pat Scott🩴predicts NO

@JackIngram then sell? you prob got a bit of profit here

JackIngram avatar
Jack Ingrambought Ṁ117 of YES

@Stralor I trust Joshua wholeheartedly

cece avatar
pancakes

someone place 3000 limit on YES, and then i'll buy 100 no (= 10000 shares) and promise to hold that stance so long as i get paid > 150 by the time the market closes.

or, i'll place that limit if someone i trust promises to hold their 10K shares of no and i'll pay them 150M off the bat.

dittopoop avatar
dittopoopbought Ṁ3 of NO

What is he cooking?

Stralor avatar
Pat Scott🩴bought Ṁ100 of NO

y'all there's no way someone throws away 10k like that. YES bettors beware!

3 replies
cloudprism avatar
Hayden Jacksonpredicts YES

@Stralor i w a n t t o b e l i e v e

Joshua avatar
Joshuapredicts NO

Pat and I are sharing a room at Manifest, maybe he'll steal my phone while i'm asleep and sell my shares

Stralor avatar
Pat Scott🩴predicts NO

@Joshua definitely

AdamTreat avatar
Adam Treatpredicts NO

I don’t get this market. Can someone let me in on the joke please?

2 replies
cloudprism avatar
Hayden Jacksonpredicts YES

@AdamTreat there are layers... will a >10k NO holder forget to sell some before closing time? will someone inadvertently overbuy and not notice? etc

AdamTreat avatar
Adam Treatpredicts NO

@cloudprism 90% chance someone is going to inadvertently lose a huge bet that is easily avoidable?? I don’t think so. Anyone else know the joke?

gigab0nus avatar
gigab0nuspredicts YES

Betting 10k against your own alt here and then moving the profits back via another market is not against the guidelines, right?

5 replies
firstuserhere avatar
firstuserhere

@gigab0nus It is against manifold's guidelines and i will also not consider it for the market if its someone's alt.

gigab0nus avatar
gigab0nussold Ṁ9 of YES

@firstuserhere I can‘t find a point in the guidelines this would violate. The most problematic is „Created with the purpose to manipulate the resolution of a market (eg. “will this market get more than X traders?”)“, but one does not have to create his alt for this purpose.

And „Leveraging balances of multiple accounts to boost an account up the profit leaderboard“ is not a problem when you correct for it with a second market.

gigab0nus avatar
gigab0nus

@firstuserhere Would you accept it if it is part of a deal between two people, instead of one person and their alt?

firstuserhere avatar
firstuserhere

@gigab0nus yes I'll accept a behind the scenes deal bw two people. However using an alt won't be accepted as per the following manifold guidelines

From the guidelines doc

Alts used for the following will be met with punishment, regardless of if you are abiding by the rules outlined above:

Created with the purpose to manipulate the resolution of a market (eg. “will this market get more than X traders?”)

Even if the above point didn't apply strongly, the following one is broad enough to probably cover a deal like proposed.

Any other action that could benefit the profit of an account that involves a second

gigab0nus avatar
gigab0nus