Global energy-related CO2 emissions grew by 1.1% in 2023 (IEA), or by a mere 0.1% according to this Nature article.

Here is the graph for the past few years form IEA.

China alone grew around 565 Mt. China's growth was greater than the rest of the world's decrease but some think it may be close to peak. Q1 2024 numbers may even point at a decrease.

Will 2028 emissions be lower than 2027?

This market will resolves based on IEA's numbers when released based on the actual change in CO2 emissions between the two years, no matter what extraordinary event (like COVID) may happen each year.

I have created the same markets for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 already but at the time of market creation, none has reached >50%. I'm trying to find the consensus for when we start reverting the CO2 emission trend (note that this market is about yoy changes, which could be because of exceptionally good hydro or solar that particular year).

What about 2028?