Using synthetic biology, will humans bring back dinosaurs?
Using synthetic biology, will humans bring back dinosaurs?
35
1kṀ18192050
23%
within 10 years
50%
10-50 years
57%
50-100 years
7%
greater than 100 years
54%
never
At the Gingko Bioworks FERMENT 2024 summit, the Head of Research at CRISPR Technologies stated that with the power of synbio we will recreate dinosaurs within 10 years.
Will this be possible/will we actually do it?
Resolves yes if a fully formed dinosaur roams the Earth again, but does not include dinosaur « ingredients » (i.e. dinosaur meat, collagen, etc.).
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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