This resolves when a mod comments on it. A mod may pick the resolution, otherwise resolves at prob 69%
Fuck the police cummin straight from the underground.
๐ป๐ฃ
1,000
3.00@SirSalty Technically you aren't a mod, you're an admin.
Personally, I would like this to resolve to 68%.
@IsaacKing It was clarified that manifold staff are what matters here https://manifold.markets/f/i-will-bet-on-all-your-makets-if-yo#xohh5QT1bOE3kwBzyf1a
@f - same question as above. You're still active, but are you still planning on doing this? It'd be awesome if you were
@f dont know if you've clarified this but shouldn't you be closing this market to prevent even more people from entering?
Edit: Well, I guess it could be considered a part of the challenge.
Hey guys, I'm doing something similar but less poorly thought out
Hey guys, its been awhile since Ive given y'all a good update
A month and a half ago I got a hand injury that prevented me from making bets on my computer. For a little while I tried doing bets on my phone but quickly gave up because of how slow it was. I decided to wait until I got my cast off which was a couple days ago.
I started working on this again, and got a few hundred questions done, but after looking at some of the bigger accounts on this I'm starting to realize despite my previous confidence, my mana may not be able to handle this.
I am running a fundraiser (linked below). If you'd like to help me out and get paid out within a month, consider checking it out.
I know this is may be seen as going against the original intention of this, but understand this got way way bigger than I could have imagined. I'm doing the best I can with the situation I have got myself into. I also have 2000 mana riding on me eventually getting this done (see Dan's market).
Best regards and thank you all for your patience
https://manifold.markets/f/add-2-mana-to-the-bounty-and-ill-be?r=Zg
Probability should be slightly lower than 69%. There are three possibilities:
No admin comment, resolves 69%.
Admin comments and uses their choice of resolution to make a profit. They can get the most profit by resolving it NO, assuming the probability is still above 50%, which it almost certainly will be.
Admin comments and either decides a random resolution, or a resolution motivated by some reason other than profit on this market. There's an equal chance of YES and NO here, so the probability given this option should be ~50%.
Regardless of what probability the latter two have of occurring, the expected value of this market's resolution should be <69% as long as the latter two are nonzero.
@JosephNoonan aha! You mug! Now that you have moved the market down I can sell my 3 NO shares for a profit of... 0.06 mana! ๐ค
@JosephNoonan uh oh are we mods now, since we have the power to resolve? does us commenting here force a resolution?
@Stralor My assumption is that only Manifold employees count as mods, but I guess I don't know for sure.
@JosephNoonan FWIW in the Manifold codebase on GitHub, Trustwworthy-ish users are referred to as "MOD"s, so there's a "letter" argument as well as a "spirit" argument:
