Will I remain above Platinum for the third season of the Manifold leagues?
12
resolved Jul 1
Resolved
YES

This market resolves as YES if I am still in Diamond or above during the third season of the Manifold leagues. If I am demoted to Platinum at the end of the second season, this market resolves as NO.

This market may resolve slightly early if the outcome is abundantly clear before the end of the season. If I have earned at least 5,000 more mana than the highest-ranked person at risk of demotion (i.e. whoever is at rank 16/20), and the date is June 26 or later, this market resolves as YES. If I have earned at least 10,000 more mana than that person, and the date is June 21 or later, this market resolves as YES.

Similarly, if I am at risk of demotion and I would need 10,000 mana or more to not be demoted, this market resolves as NO if the date is June 21 or later. If I would need 5,000 mana or more to not be demoted and the date is June 26 or later, this market resolves as NO.

I expect a YES resolution and will be working to make that happen. That may include betting in this market. While I am actively trying to get the market to resolve YES, this market resolves based on publicly-available information and the ultimate outcome is out of my control - e.g. if I end up in a group full of people more skilled than me, a YES resolution becomes much less likely - so I don't feel like there's anything immoral or shady about trading in this market.

If there is no season 3 of the Manifold leagues for whatever reason, this market will resolve as N/A.

Get แน€500 play money

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๐Ÿ… Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1แน€48
2แน€10
3แน€10
4แน€2
5แน€2
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evergreenemily avatar
evergreenpredicted YES

4,000 above #21 now. I don't expect to make an additional 1,000 mana in profit at any point in the next 14 hours, so this market won't be resolving early. Instead, it will resolve upon rankings being finalized.

5 replies
BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwards

@evergreenemily I am betting big you can do it!! ๐Ÿ˜‰

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwards

@evergreenemily Sent you a curious cat message with strategy tip. Discord would be easier maybe?

evergreenemily avatar
evergreenpredicted YES

@BTE Thank you! Somehow this never showed up in my notifications, but I've seen the message now. It might be, but I'm always nervous giving out my Discord in public spaces - I've had some less-than-great experiences before, and given how many hot takes I post here on a regular basis, I'm especially paranoid about maintaining privacy and anonymity.

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwards

@evergreenemily I understand. My discord is public on my profile so you can just send me a DM without having to post anything publicly.

evergreenemily avatar
evergreenpredicted YES

@BTE I'll take you up on that tomorrow!

evergreenemily avatar
evergreenbought แน€5 of YES

Currently a bit less than 3500 above #21. Not quite enough for me to resolve this early, but close.

evergreenemily avatar
evergreenpredicted YES

Looking good so far. I have a feeling I'll remain in Diamond; if my rank does change, the chance of me being promoted to ??? is almost certainly higher than the chance of me being demoted to Platinum.