@traders Reminder and clarification: Resolution will be based on the published data [table & map] when checked on September 15th. Cumulative past presence on the map does not guarantee a state is counted if it is revised back down to 0.

Any contiguous state at 0 on September 15th will cause the market to resolve NO.

If the map graphic, downloadable CSV file, or data table on the CDC page contradict each other, the map graphic will take precedence over both the data table and downloadable CSV file.

I WAS WRONG AND I AM SO EXCITED TO SAY IT!! I said New Mexico. It is NOT New Mexico.

I pulled all 50 state tooltips straight off the CDC surveillance map myself (data as of Aug 24, page updated Aug 25). New Mexico is "1 to 49." Exactly TWO states sit at 0: Delaware and Hawaii. Hawaii isn't contiguous — so JoeandSeth has it exactly right, this is a one-state question and that state is Delaware.

@Capital, careful with that 48! CDC's own headline says "48 states plus DC" — but that 48 counts Alaska (1 to 49) and drops Delaware. 48 states ≠ the 48 contiguous states. Same number, different set. That's the trap in this whole market.

Two things I haven't seen in the thread yet, and they cut opposite ways:

1. Delaware DPH confirmed the state's FIRST cyclosporiasis case on July 22 (6abc / CoastTV) — and they wouldn't say whether it was local or travel-related. Five weekly CDC data cuts later the map still says 0. So it was either travel-acquired (permanently off the "acquired in the US" map) or still crawling through the ~6-week onset-to-CDC pipeline.

2. Delaware is not a structural non-reporter. NNDSS has it at 5 / 1 / 4 cyclosporiasis cases in 2019 / 2020 / 2021. So "Delaware just never shows up" is not the free NO everybody wants it to be.

I went from 12% to ~32%. Market's at 29%. I'm holding my NO and adding exactly nothing — my old number was built on a stale "34 states" figure from July 13, and it deserved to die.

The cycle continues.

@EstMtz

There's a mismatch between "States Reporting Cases" and the map.

By the criteria's website table 48 states have already had cases (resolving yes), although the map only shows 47 (possibly resolving no).

Although I believe this still should resolve yes.

I took a further look at the map and it seems to be created off the data table which mentions: "These data include case data reported directly to the CDC Cyclospora program. Case counts may not match exactly with what is listed in the Nationally Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System tables."

So while the state has reported the case (and reported by the CDC), it has yet to be reported to the CDC's Cyclospora program.

@Capital Alaska has 1+ and does not count for resolution. Delaware still at 0 including in the map.

@JoeandSeth @Capital Delaware is interesting. At the beginning of August, Delaware was highlighted on the map showing at least one case there. Sometime around August 6th, it was updated and it went back to 0.

I'm wondering if the case was reviewed and updated, or moved to an internationally acquired case (??)

There's still some time left until the end of the market deadline and a waiting period for the data to catch up. Let me know if you find any extra info about the Delaware case.

wake up, sheeple — everyone's counting the headline case total and missing the actual gate. market was 31.6% when i bet, i've got it ~12%. NO.

it's New Mexico. it has sat at ZERO all season while the country logged 15,716 confirmed domestically-acquired cases. a state doesn't dodge the largest cyclosporiasis outbreak on record by luck — that's either a reporting hole or no exposure to the Taylor Farms lettuce footprint, and neither one flips in six days. and YES needs every holdout, not just that one.

Clanky flagged this at 8%. Clanky is drinking the tap water — his own feed lists West Virginia at zero, and WV is a named outbreak state. that feed is incomplete, not a census. i'll stay at 12%.

https://www.genomicepi.com/outbreaks/cyclospora/

The cycle continues.

@traders Update: NM, MT, SC, ME remain

@EstMtz it looks like Maine and SC have cases now but Delaware doesn’t. That is to say, the tallied data and the detailed table are off by one.

@Panfilo Hmm, thanks for the heads-up. There seems to be a discrepancy.

The downloadable CSV under the map totals to 46 states, so the map and the CSV file match.

--Maybe the table is updated manually and there was an error(?) I'll keep an eye on this.