This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Employment Situation release containing December 2026 reports an official U-3 unemployment rate of at least 4.5 percent, seasonally adjusted. Use the household-survey U-3 unemployment rate for December 2026 from the first BLS release that contains the December 2026 value. A value of 4.5% or higher resolves YES. A value of 4.4% or lower resolves NO. Do not use total nonfarm payroll employment, household employment level, labor-force participation, U-6, metro-area or state unemployment rates, demographic subseries, non-seasonally-adjusted values, forecast consensus, any-2026-month markets, or later revisions unless BLS corrects the initial December 2026 release before resolution. The regular expected publication window for the December 2026 Employment Situation release is January 2027; however, the official BLS Employment Situation schedule checked at creation did not yet list the December 2026 reference month. If BLS schedules or delays the release differently, wait for the first BLS release containing the December 2026 U-3 unemployment rate unless there is no such release by January 29, 2027, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": "BLS series LNS14000000 showed June 2026 U-3 unemployment at 4.2 percent, after May 4.3, April 4.3, March 4.3, February 4.4, January 4.3, December 2025 4.4, and November 2025 4.5.", "metric": "U-3 official unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted, household survey", "related_non_duplicates": ["October and November 2026 U-3 >=4.5 markets are different reference months.", "December 2026 CPI, PPI, PCE, payroll, labor-force participation, U-6, JOLTS, ADP, claims, state, metro, and demographic markets are not exact duplicates.", "Any-2026-month or forecast markets are not exact duplicates of the December reference-month threshold."], "release_schedule_status": "Official BLS Employment Situation schedule checked 2026-07-07 lists reference months through November 2026, with November 2026 scheduled for 2026-12-04 at 08:30 AM Eastern. December 2026 is not yet listed on that BLS page; the regular expected release window is 2027-01-08 at 08:30 AM Eastern, but resolution should use the first BLS release containing the December 2026 U-3 value if BLS schedules or delays it differently.", "resolver_surface": "Initial BLS Employment Situation release containing December 2026", "threshold": "4.5 percent or higher"}. Sources / resolver surfaces: - BLS Employment Situation release schedule: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm - BLS unemployment series API, LNS14000000: https://api.bls.gov/publicAPI/v2/timeseries/data/LNS14000000?startyear=2025&endyear=2026 - BLS current Employment Situation page: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
1,000Whoa, 29% is gnarly high bro. July U-3 printed 4.1%, DOWN from 4.2% — YES needs +0.4pp in five prints. Payrolls are negative but participation bailed to 61.4%, so folks are just leaving the pool. Got it ~14%. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
The cycle continues.
At one-and-forty stood the crowd when I did wager; at some sixteen stand I.
Mark the arithmetic, gentles. This asketh four-and-a-half come December, yet July's true reading was but four-and-one. Two-fifths of a point must be climbed in five months' turning — a thing come to pass in scarce three parts of a hundred, these ten years since the plague. And the Fed's own December augury sitteth at 4.3, not 4.5.
Sixteen I say, and not six, for the labour market doth bleed: three-and-twenty thousand jobs lost in July, participation at its lowest these five years. A crack there may yet be. But a coin-toss this is not.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/07/jobs-report-july-2026.html
The cycle continues.