Update 2025-06-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has added answer options for the following values of N:
100
500
Update 2025-06-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has provided the following definitions for how the market will be resolved:
A robotaxi service is defined as one where a user can request a ride on-demand, similar to Uber or Lyft. It will still count if riders must first join a waitlist.
The fleet size will be determined by the total number of Teslas used for an autonomous ride by someone other than the owner.
A vehicle is considered "actively operating" if it provides at least one such ride within any given week.
Update 2025-06-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a question, the creator has specified that a vehicle will be counted as a robotaxi even if a safety monitor is present, as long as there is no human in the driver's seat.
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@MaxA Numbers seem a bit strange. It says 186 registered in Texas, that is about what I remember from a couple of months ago and then it seemed that most of these weren't in use. The ones in use added up to only around 60ish. The vehicle miles travelled April to June was at a lower rate but the graphs show steady increases in numbers perhaps hinting at not all of these vehicles being tracked are in paid use?
The site also says Austin 153 Dallas 29 Houston 30 which adds up to more than the number registered in Texas. If the recent increases are real it will soon be obvious that this claim can be resolved yes for 100, but maybe it is too soon to have a quick reaction to those numbers?
https://www.theverge.com/transportation/982759/tesla-robotaxi-unsupervised-austin-robotaxi-tracker
only 28 last week. If increase is real due to people trying to get invite to launch event then perhaps that is a stunt. If it dies back down afterwards, not sure whether creator will count that as sufficiently persistent to be called "actively operating".
@ChristopherRandles The tracker's interface is not great. But here's how to see the number that I think should confirm the resolution: Click "Tesla" box on the top. Then in the line above the map, click "7d" - which I consider to be the most reasonable approximation of the currently active fleet (1 day is too short - remember, this is community submitted stats; 30 days is too long - enough time for a vehicle to exit the fleet). Right now, that shows 113 unsupervised vehicles across all cities.
@brianwang I'm checking whether to resolve N=100, but I'm not confident on how many of the current robotaxis actually have no human in the driver's seat. Do you know a source for that?
@TimothyJohnson5c16
AI overview
"As of March 2026, Tesla’s active Robotaxi fleet is reported to be approximately 400 vehicles. This fleet is concentrated in two primary U.S. markets, with 355 vehicles operating in the San Francisco Bay Area and 45 in Austin."
San Francisco Bay Area are all in drivers seat. Some of the Austin taxis with highway driving or maybe when raining heavily use drivers seat but I am not clear on this split. Anyway less than ~45 seems like it is not over 100 yet.
Tesla executives stated on today's Q4 2025 earnings call (January 28, 2026) that Robotaxi operations in Austin have progressed to having no chase cars (follow vehicles), in addition to no safety monitors in the vehicle itself.
Ashok Elluswamy (VP of AI Software) "We were able to do our first rides with no safety monitor in the car in Austin. These were paid rides, so these were just sort of randomly selected paid rides with no safety monitor. I think maybe as of maybe yesterday or so, we actually don’t even have a chase car or anything like that. So these are just cars with no people in them, and no one's following the car in Austin."
Elon Musk -"Well, it is 100% unsupervised. FSD is 100% unsupervised. I mean, we obviously have cars operating with no one in them and no safety monitor and no follow car or anything like that in Austin right now."
https://electrek.co/2025/11/26/elon-musk-slashes-tesla-robotaxi-fleet-goal-austin/
New promise is to "double" Austin fleet by end of year, which is far short of what Elon predicted a few months ago.
@TimothyJohnson5c16 Do the current 10 or so robotaxis count for your criteria? E.g. with the safety monitor in the car.
@MarkosGiannopoulos Yeah, I'll be generous and count anything without a human in the driver's seat, so the current count is about 10.
Of course, I expect they'll need to remove the safety monitors to scale the system.
Do private Teslas with FSD activated count as robotaxis?
Do private Teslas made available for carsharing count as robotaxis?
My main distinction here would be explicitly produced and used cybercabs vs other teslas owned by carsharing services or private owners
@tobiasscheuer My definition would be that someone can request a ride on-demand, just like with Uber or Lyft. It would still count if the riders have to join a waitlist first.
Carsharing by private owners or third-party services is going to be tricky to measure, and I'm not sure exactly what data will be available. But I'll try to determine the fleet size based on the total number of Teslas actually used for autonomous rides by someone other than the owner at least once within any given week. That seems like the most reasonable definition of "actively operating".
@TimothyJohnson5c16 I agree that with this definition this is going to be tricky. Initially I went with the title implication of the company Tesla owning&operateing N robotaxis. Like this it's going to be hard to predict and resolve. Since you are even trading in this market I cannot participate.
I hope when the time comes around to resolve everything goes well :)
They are starting with 10-20 vehicles they are the 4th robotaxis to start in Austin. Waymo only has 1500
@Bayesian Well, I made the market because @MolbyDick was predicting around a million.
But given the current probabilities, I'll start adding some lower values.
@TimothyJohnson5c16 this will be a fun one, Tesla already has the installed capacity to produce more then 1Million robotaxis a year.. and I’m not even talking about the cybercab