Resolves YES, if at 6pm ET on November 3 2026, any of these races listed in the photo below, have Democratic odds improved by 25%. Must be at that time on election day, if they shift 25% and then go back down before election day, it doesn’t count.

‘Improved by 25%’ means +25%. Eg. From 1% to 26%.

For example, if Montana had Democrats at 26%, or Florida had democrats at 35%, then this would market will resolve yes.

Only races included in the screenshot below count for this market.

Check out the model here: https://www.theargumentmag.com/p/split-ticket-2026-midterms-model