Resolves YES if, by December 31, 2027, a US federal law is signed that imposes binding requirements (testing, reporting, licensing or liability) specifically on developers of frontier or general-purpose AI models. Executive orders, agency guidance, state laws and laws that only fund research or create advisory bodies do not count.

Background: in September 2026 I asked an AI for its ten-year forecast, best case and worst case. Its 2027 worst-case list included "Hearings are held, nothing passes; lobbying money beats public concern." I am making a market for each checkable point so the forecast can be scored. The full forecast is free: The Forecast: 2027 to 2036, best case and worst case

The Forecast: 2027 to 2036, best case and worst case

The ten-year AI forecast the novel Two Lives grew out of. Ten points a year, both columns, with its confidence for each year.