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MANIFOLD
Will Tesla's Cybercab be carrying public riders in at least 3 US metro areas by December 31, 2026?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ10
2027
33%
chance

Tesla unveiled the two seat Cybercab (no steering wheel, no pedals) at its We, Robot event in October 2024, began building it at Giga Texas in 2026, and has announced a Cybercab launch event in Austin on September 3, 2026. Tesla's existing Robotaxi service, live in Austin, Dallas, Houston, Miami, Orlando and Tampa, still runs on modified Model Y vehicles, and Tesla has said Cybercab rides begin with employees before the vehicles join the public Robotaxi service. Roughly 100 Cybercabs have been reported staged at a Dallas robotaxi hub. This market asks how far the Cybercab itself actually gets into public service this year. Resolves YES if, at any point on or before 11:59pm US Central time on December 31, 2026, Cybercab vehicles have carried members of the general public on rides booked through Tesla's Robotaxi app on public roads in at least three distinct US metropolitan areas. Otherwise resolves NO. Clarifications: 1. Cybercab means the purpose built two seat vehicle without a steering wheel or pedals. Model Y or other Tesla robotaxis do not count. 2. Members of the general public means non Tesla employee riders. Invitation only or early access waves count as long as the riders are members of the public. Rides given to Tesla employees, and demo rides given to guests at a Tesla event venue (including the September 3 launch event), do not count. 3. Rides may be paid or promotional/free, as long as they are booked by public riders through Tesla's Robotaxi app and run on public roads. 4. The three metro areas must be distinct US metropolitan areas (for example Austin, Dallas Fort Worth, Houston, Miami, Orlando, Tampa, Phoenix, Las Vegas, San Francisco Bay Area). Suburbs inside the same metro do not count separately. The three do not have to be operating simultaneously, cumulative coverage over the period counts. 5. Resolution sources, in order of preference: Tesla official communications (Tesla or Tesla Robotaxi posts, the Tesla Robotaxi app service listings, Tesla press or investor materials), otherwise consistent reporting from at least two independent credible outlets. This market will be resolved by January 7, 2027 (the RESOLUTION_DEADLINE), using information available by that date.

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If they briefly achieve three, but then one or more are taken back off the market, does this still resolve YES?