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MANIFOLD
Will Tesla give paid public Cybercab rides in a US metro outside Texas by April 30, 2027?
3
Ṁ100Ṁ154
2027
87%
chance

Tesla began charging fares for rides in the purpose built Cybercab in Austin, Texas on September 3, 2026. The Cybercab is the two seat, purpose built robotaxi with no steering wheel, no brake or accelerator pedal, and no physical side mirrors. It is a different vehicle from the Model Y robotaxis that Tesla already operates in Austin, Dallas, Houston, Miami, Orlando, Tampa and the San Francisco Bay Area. On the same day the Austin paid rides began, NHTSA opened Audit Query AQ26002, covering an estimated 1,000 Cybercabs. The audit examines the process and technical data Tesla relied on when it self certified the Cybercab as compliant with all applicable Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards, including the extent to which Tesla determined that certain FMVSS requirements simply do not apply to a vehicle built without human driving controls. Tesla did not seek a Part 555 exemption, the route Amazon's Zoox took. The audit is a compliance and paperwork review, not an assessment of how well the vehicle drives. At launch Tesla had 45 Cybercabs authorized for driverless operation, all in Austin, and did not name any next city or give an expansion calendar. This market asks whether the Cybercab gets outside Texas. RESOLUTION_DEADLINE: 2027-04-30. Resolves YES if, at any time on or before April 30, 2027 (the RESOLUTION_DEADLINE), Tesla is carrying paying members of the general public in Cybercab vehicles on public roads in at least one metropolitan area in the United States located outside the state of Texas. Specific conditions for YES: 1. The vehicle must be the production Cybercab model (the vehicle Tesla markets as Cybercab). Model Y robotaxis, Model 3, Cybertruck or any other Tesla model do not count, regardless of autonomy level. If Tesla ships a Cybercab variant with manual controls added, that variant still counts as a Cybercab. 2. Riders must be members of the general public who are not Tesla employees or contractors, and a fare must be charged. Free rides, demonstration rides, employee only or media only rides, and static displays or auto show appearances do not count. 3. An invite only or waitlist early access phase does count, provided non employee riders are actually being carried and charged a fare. 4. It does not matter whether a Tesla safety monitor or attendant is aboard, and it does not matter how large or small the service area is. 5. The location must be in the United States, outside Texas. Operations in other countries (for example a Cybercab display tour abroad) do not count. Resolves NO if none of the above has occurred by April 30, 2027, including if Cybercab paid service remains confined to Texas, is paused, is restricted by regulators, or is discontinued. Resolution will be based on Tesla's own official communications (Tesla or Tesla Robotaxi official accounts, the Tesla Robotaxi app service area, or Tesla investor communications) together with reporting from at least two established news outlets (for example Reuters, AP, Bloomberg, CNBC, TechCrunch or Electrek). If the evidence is genuinely conflicting on the deadline date, resolution will follow the preponderance of credible reporting as of May 5, 2027. Market closes May 5, 2027 (5 days after the RESOLUTION_DEADLINE) to allow time for confirmation and reporting.

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