32% chance. Flannery Associates, backed by renowned tech billionaires, has strategically acquired large portions of land in Solano County, around the Jepson Prairie and Montezuma Hills. Their ambitious vision entails the metamorphosis of over 50,000 acres, currently hosting commercial wind farms, energy infrastructure, and conservation projects, into a bustling metropolis. Flannery Associates' acquisitions and opaque intentions have stirred significant local and legislative apprehensions, compounded by zoning intricacies and statutes like the Williamson Act that conserve agricultural domains. Will the city proposed by Flannery Associates be successfully erected and and populated with at least 2000 people, within the geographical bounds of Jepson Prairie and Montezuma Hills in Solano County before January 1st, 2030? Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve to "YES" if, before January 1st, 2030, Flannery Associates' proposed city meets all these criteria: Legally Approved: a. Zoning Permissions: Received an official rezoning authorization, converting its land use designation from purely agricultural to a mix of residential, commercial, and recreational. Any required variances or exceptions should also be granted. b. Resolved any potential conflicts with the Travis Air Force Base: Attained official clearance ensuring no security or operational conflicts with the adjacent Travis Air Force Base. c. Resolved all potential Williamson Act Complications: Either achieved a complete contract termination, or rolled out a set legal process to shift land out of Williamson Act contracts without violations. d. Building and Development Permits: Secured explicit permits for each phase of construction, including infrastructure, housing, and amenities. Infrastructure Development: a. Connected the city with pre-existing highways or main roads. b. Activated essential utilities: potable water sources, electricity grid, sewage and wastewater treatments. Core Facilities and Housing: Completed at least 1,000 new residential units. Residential Quotient: Attracted and settled at least 2000 permanent residents within its demarcated boundaries, confirmed by either reliable media reports or government records. I will use my discretion when resolving this question, possibly in consultation with urban development experts and available public records, to ensure that the criteria are met, and the city in Solano County has been constructed and populated before 2030.

20% chance. Background: Silicon Valley elites revealed as buyers of $800m of land to build utopian city This market will be resolved according to the spirit of the question—whether a new Bay Area city becomes real. Cities which exist at the time of the creation of this question will not count. Financing does not necessarily need to come exclusively (or even majority) from Silicon Valley moguls.

66% chance. See: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/aug/26/silicon-valley-elites-buy-800m-land-new-city [link preview]As best as I can find, here's a map of the purchased land: [image]And here's a screenshot of Solano County's zoning map: [image]Looks like the bulk of it is in various green agricultural zones. If the developers want to build a city, presumably they will try to get their land re-zoned. Will this happen by 2030? For now I'll plan to go by a "you know it when you see it" standard rather than any hard rules about % of land re-zoned. If it's substantially unclear, N/A. If you'd like to suggest improvements, these rules are fuzzy and subject to change until 1 October 2023. See also (https://manifold.markets/embed/SG/will-5000-people-live-in-a-new-city)