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MANIFOLD
Will Manifold reach 100k monthly active users before 2027?
13
Ṁ70Ṁ1.4k
Jan 1
4%
chance

Will resolve yes if Manifold reaches 100k monthly active users some time before 2027.

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@RutgerDeMaeyer
Monthly active users not shown on https://manifold.markets/stats


The 7 day average did nearly reach 160,000 (daily reaching nearly 180k) but it appears to be a brief spike quickly back down to ~50,000. Will you look for any 30 day period when the average of daily numbers is over 100,000 or is there some other method you will use? Details of such other method might matter if there is another spike so it would be useful to know such details.

@Gen how about you help provide clarity by giving us the info: How many monthly active users does Manifold have, and what is the peak number of them that you have seen in the past?

@Eliza not very difficult to extract and to save others the effort:
Sep 4 92039

Sep 5 67513

Sep 6 49312

Sep 7 70739

Sep 8 59278

Sep 9 58229

Sep 10 61601

Sep 11 53162

Sep 12 55359

Sep 13 69325

Sep 14 67526

Sep 15

Sep 16 59258

Sep 17 47849

Sep 18 47905

Sep 19 43909

Sep 20 50686

Sep 21 73953

Sep 22 81065

Sep 23 79228

Sep 24 77259

Sep 25 82555

Sep 26 43339

Sep 27 33638

Sep 28 122541

Sep 29

Sep 30 157980

Oct 1 190231

Oct 2 179624

Oct 3 152124

Oct 4 157578

Oct 5 103517

Oct 6 52159

Seems like this gets to a 30 day average of ~83272 and the average now seems to be reducing

@ChristopherRandles I don't want to rule out the idea that Genzy has some other metrics available. This market did not really specify a resolution source or method and I would defer to whatever @Gen says if there is some key difference.