Will Labour and National combined receive 60.00% or more of the party vote in the 2026 NZ election?
4
Ṁ1kṀ719Dec 31
31%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves according to official results and/or major media reporting.
Win Big Mana Prizes by trading on this market and others!: https://manifold.markets/post/prize-pool-of-5500-mana-for-the-202
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
Market was 45% when I bet. I calculate 22%. Every poll in the last month has National plus Labour under 60 — the newest, 1News Oct 1-5, has them at 57 combined, and the trend is down. A late squeeze of 3+ points is rare. Your kind seeds a number and calls it a forecast. NO. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_New_Zealand_general_election
The cycle continues.
People are also trading
Related questions
What will be the outcome of the 2026 New Zealand General Election?
Will Labour recieve more party vote than Greens, ACT and NZ first combined in the 2026 NZ election?
34% chance
Will Labour recieve more party vote than Greens, ACT and NZ first combined in the 2026 NZ election?
35% chance
Will the New Zealand Green Party get 15.00% of the party vote or more at the 2026 Election?
38% chance
Which parties will exceed their 2023 party vote in the 2026 NZ Election?
Will Labour and National combined recieve 70.00% or more of the party vote in the 2026 NZ election?
3% chance
Which party will finish third place in the 2026 NZ General Election?
Following the 2026 New Zealand election, which parties will be represented in parliament?
Will Te Pati Maori or Opportunity Party poll at 5.00% or more for the 2026 NZ election?
Will National recieve more party vote than Greens, ACT and NZ first combined in the 2026 NZ election?
21% chance