[tweet]Resolves YES if, before GTA 6 releases, there exists a publicly accessible AI model/agent/any kind of tool that can do the following: With 10 or fewer human prompts totaling 1000 or fewer words, and requiring less than 15 minutes of additional manual work from the user, create a Grand Theft Auto-style video game comparable to GTA 5 in scope, gameplay, and quality. This likely means it would have many hours of story missions, extensive side content, a sizable urban open world, high quality assets, have few bugs, etc. Resolves NO if GTA 6 releases publicly on any console in any region before this happens.

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 2% chance (6 traders, as of Aug 28, 2026).

Will it be possible to vibe code a Grand Theft Auto-scope+style game "in a few minutes" before GTA 6 releases?

Ṁ100Ṁ189

Nov 19

chance

ALL

Resolves YES if, before GTA 6 releases, there exists a publicly accessible AI model/agent/any kind of tool that can do the following:

With 10 or fewer human prompts totaling 1000 or fewer words,
and requiring less than 15 minutes of additional manual work from the user,
create a Grand Theft Auto-style video game comparable to GTA 5 in scope, gameplay, and quality. This likely means it would have many hours of story missions, extensive side content, a sizable urban open world, high quality assets, have few bugs, etc.

Resolves NO if GTA 6 releases publicly on any console in any region before this happens.

Market context

Programming

Get

1,000

to start trading!

Sort by:

This might be possible in 5-10 years or so. Though I suppose there's a distinction between something like Rockstar's full source/asset tree and a playable-ish descendant of Google Genie hallucinated in real time as a sort of interactive AI video. I'd expect the latter first. The former is closer to the city of geniuses in a data center idea, and would presumably be executed by superintelligent agent swarms.