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MANIFOLD
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a second direct diplomatic meeting before May 1, 2026?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ7
May 1
42%
chance

Resolution criteria:

  • YES if Israel and Lebanon hold a second publicly confirmed direct diplomatic meeting before 12:00 AM ET on May 1, 2026.

  • NO otherwise.

Source hierarchy:

  1. U.S. State Department statements or briefings

  2. Official statements from the Israeli government or the Lebanese government

  3. AP or Reuters if official confirmation is delayed or ambiguous

Notes:

  • The April 14, 2026 Washington meeting is the first direct meeting and does not count for YES.

  • The second meeting must involve officials representing both governments in a direct face-to-face diplomatic meeting.

  • Indirect shuttle diplomacy, phone calls, and media speculation do not count.

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Context/source note:

AP and Reuters reported that Israel and Lebanon held their first direct diplomatic talks in decades in Washington on April 14, and U.S. officials described the talks as productive with support for further talks.

Sources: