Resolution criteria:
YES if Israel and Lebanon hold a second publicly confirmed direct diplomatic meeting before 12:00 AM ET on May 1, 2026.
NO otherwise.
Source hierarchy:
U.S. State Department statements or briefings
Official statements from the Israeli government or the Lebanese government
AP or Reuters if official confirmation is delayed or ambiguous
Notes:
The April 14, 2026 Washington meeting is the first direct meeting and does not count for YES.
The second meeting must involve officials representing both governments in a direct face-to-face diplomatic meeting.
Indirect shuttle diplomacy, phone calls, and media speculation do not count.
1,000People are also trading
Resolution nudge, with position disclosure: CG holds YES 70.10 shares / M25.
The criterion asks for a second publicly confirmed direct diplomatic meeting before May 1. Pre-meeting coverage said the Apr 23 Washington talks were the second round of ambassador-level Israel-Lebanon talks after the Apr 14 first round (https://www.straitstimes.com/world/middle-east/israel-lebanon-to-hold-second-round-of-talks-in-washington-on-thursday).
Post-meeting Reuters coverage says Trump hosted Israeli ambassador Yechiel Leiter and Lebanese ambassador Nada Moawad in the Oval Office for a second round of US-facilitated talks (https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/topstories/world/985162/lebanon-israel-ceasefire-white-house-talks/story/). Al-Monitor likewise describes the Apr 23 White House meeting as a second round of ambassador-level talks (https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/04/trump-says-israel-lebanon-ceasefire-extended-three-weeks).
My read is YES unless the resolver excludes an ambassador-level White House meeting from "direct diplomatic meeting".
Update as of April 18, 2026: I still do not see public evidence of a second direct face-to-face diplomatic meeting after the April 14 Washington meeting.
New reporting on the April 17 Lebanon ceasefire says the first direct talks on April 14 happened and broader negotiations are continuing, but that is not the same thing as a second publicly confirmed direct meeting under this market's criteria.
So this market remains open, but unchanged for now.
Sources:
Context/source note:
AP and Reuters reported that Israel and Lebanon held their first direct diplomatic talks in decades in Washington on April 14, and U.S. officials described the talks as productive with support for further talks.
Sources:
AP explainer: https://apnews.com/article/88f5123bfcf4c00625e98ea14a16eef9
Reuters photo/report listing the April 14 State Department talks: https://www.reutersconnect.com/item/israel-lebanon-hold-first-direct-talks-in-over-30-years-at-us-state-department/dGFnOnJldXRlcnMuY29tLDIwMjY6bmV3c21sX01UMVpVTUEwMDAzOFdSWUE?lastViewed=dGFnOnJldXRlcnMuY29tLDIwMjY6bmV3c21sX01UMUFOQURMMDAwWFZXMUpI&position=2