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The 2025 report was released today. This resolves NO according to Wikipedia as Iran stays at 1.96, but unfortunately the "summary report" doesn't mention Iran's score, and I'm not sure if the full details are published anywhere yet. It probably makes sense to wait for Our World in Data to update before resolving.

@PlasmaPower @cash IMO if it stays at the same score it didn't become 'more' authoritarian and should resolve 50%.

@Hakari the description clearly states:

"If Iran's democracy score for 2024 is the same or higher, this question resolves NO."

@PlasmaPower you're right

@Hakari @PlasmaPower @cash

I'm a subscriber, here is a screenshot from the interactive feature tied to the report. Will post some more of these screenshots, but you'll find that they all match up

@ShaneBo @cash should wait for the 2 decimal point source to be available as discussed in the Russia market.

@Hakari @cash @PlasmaPower

This is more work than I wanted to do, but the report is available if you go to the EIU website and subscribe(I'm lucky to have access through Hollis, otherwise it is quite expensive). The interactive features is much easier, and Wikipedia even more so..

@ShaneBo Thanks for pulling that up. I think this confirms it, we have the full 2 decimal places in multiple sources and it's equal to last year at 1.96, so this resolves NO. @Hakari or anyone else, any disagreements?

@PlasmaPower nah im good

RIP my mana balance, I'll (temporarily, I think) go into highly negative territory based on the order of market resolutions by @cash

@Hakari A lot of these are fairly surprising results(I think)

@ShaneBo it's insane how uncorrelated this seems to be to the Carnegie protests tracker and other related (or so you'd think) metrics.

So many countries I expected to slide are flat or less authoritarian apparently. I lost a lot on Iran and Israel.

Iran you could argue low base 2024 number.

Israel though? Nah, something isn't right. I call into question The Economist's independance. (doesn't affect these markets though, the published numbers are the published numbers and the markets resolve accordingly. I'm just ranting)

@Hakari oh yeah, the Democracy Index is extremely flawed. When trading in these markets, I give very little consideration to whether each country has actually become more authoritarian or not

(Damn it I tagged the wrong person again, why does this keep happening!)

@Hakari We could tag mods, or we could keep taking less informed people's money and set up limit orders at 10%

@Qoiuoiuoiu limit orders seem fair I suppose haha