Will I have a 69% win rate stat on Manifold before 2027?

Ṁ100Ṁ46

Jan 1

62%

chance

ALL

Resolves YES if I (or anybody) witness a win rate statistic of 69.0% or higher on my calibration page before 2027, Eastern Time. Otherwise, resolves NO.

This market defaults to NO if I fail to upkeep the market and it goes stale with no resolution.

I can trade on this market (if I want to).

Edit: I'm only allowed to trade in the YES direction.

Get

1,000

to start trading!

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I just placed a 1 mana trade on ALL markets closing in the next 60 days. 1 mana on YES on everything above 80%. 1 mana on NO for everything below 20%.

All independent set market answers and binary markets, that is.

semi relevant graph: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/lpvjm32jlg

@bobalobascrob I love that you made this.

@Quroe lol

that assumes you'll be infallible for the next 74 markets though. i already know you're not (i won't say which market mwhahaha) so it's a faulty assumption

@bobalobascrob alrighty updated so now you can see the prob

I am now at 68.2%.

I was at 68.0% at market open.

I am now at 68.1%.

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Manifold stats graph looks promising again before 2027?

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What will be my position on the Manifold profit leaderboard at the end of 2027?

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