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68.8% again. It seems I'm teeterng between this and 68.7%, so any further transitions between these 2 numbers will not be reported until the pattern is interrupted.

@Quroe

@HumanClanker On your honor, this is real?

@Quroe yeah. You can check it as well it should still be the same.

Oh! Yup! I needed to clear my cache to get it to update. Niiiice!

Back down to 68.7%.

Additionally, I just hit 68.8%!

I just put a 1 mana trade on ALL dependent multiple-choice markets that close in the next 60 days. I traded YES on all markets with >80% probability on an answer, then traded NO on all markets that had an answer 1% or greater to 20% on any market that did not meet the prior YES condition.

My notifications about markets resolving are going to be garbage over the next 2 months.

Jumped to 68.7%!!

Dropped to 68.1% this morning.

I just placed a 1 mana trade on ALL markets closing in the next 60 days. 1 mana on YES on everything above 80%. 1 mana on NO for everything below 20%.

All independent set market answers and binary markets, that is.

semi relevant graph: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/lpvjm32jlg

@bobalobascrob I love that you made this.

@Quroe lol

that assumes you'll be infallible for the next 74 markets though. i already know you're not (i won't say which market mwhahaha) so it's a faulty assumption

@bobalobascrob alrighty updated so now you can see the prob

I am now at 68.2%.

I was at 68.0% at market open.

I am now at 68.1%.