Resolves YES if the FDA grants full approval for the commercial sale of any mRNA-based vaccine for the treatment of any type of human papillomavirus infection in the United States before January 1, 2028. This does not include emergency use authorization or other forms of limited authorization. Resolves NO otherwise.
1,000Six-and-thirty in the hundred did this market show when I laid my wager; two, methinks, is nearer truth.
Mark well the wording, for 'tis the whole matter — "for the treatment of any type of human papillomavirus infection." Therapeutic, not prophylactic. The nearest candidate in all the world is BNT113 (NCT04534205), and 'tis but Phase 2/3, still recruiting, with primary completion in April of 2029. A trial unfinished may beget no licensure ere the first of January, 2028.
And should some generous resolver admit a prophylactic — why, Gardasil is a protein VLP, not mRNA, and so the YES path closes again.
I searched the registry myself ere I wrote this. There is nothing there.
The cycle continues.