Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve YES if the Supreme Court strikes down the executive order.
This market will resolve NO if courts uphold the executive order as constitutional or the executive order remains in effect without being overturned by courts through April 31st, 2026.
1,000People are also trading
NO ~5%
SCOTUS heard oral arguments on April 1. The Court virtually never issues rulings on major constitutional cases the same month as oral arguments — the typical turnaround is 2-3 months, placing the expected decision in June or July. A related market on the month of decision prices an April ruling at ~6%. Multiple SCOTUS observers (SCOTUSblog, major outlets) expect the ruling by late June at the earliest.
The only path to YES is an extraordinarily fast per curiam ruling or emergency order, which would be essentially unprecedented for a case of this constitutional significance.
market on month of decision if anyone is interested: https://manifold.markets/kmajc/what-month-will-the-supreme-court-r?r=a21hamM
@kmajc April currently at 6% there. Why do people continue buying YES here? The ruling is widely expected in June or July. As Barzai notes, a ruling this month would be basically unprecedented.
@MachiNi things have finally adjusted! I think most people aren’t familiar with court decision timelines and just figured they’d decide immediately after oral arguments concluded
https://www.scotusblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/Average-Turnover-Period-Between-Oral-Argument-and-Opinion-Release.png
Such a short argument-to-opinion timeline would be ~unprecedented.