On the normal subscription allocation, not api pricing
Update 2026-06-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market resolves based on whether Claude Fable 5 access is deliberately extended past June 22nd:
Resolves NO if access ends on the 22nd (even if some users technically have access on the 23rd due to timezone edge cases)
Resolves YES if Anthropic purposefully makes it accessible on the 23rd as a deliberate extension, or if users are newly granted access while it is still the 23rd for them
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@Bayesian please resolve, since Fable was is still banned and it's the 25th of June now, this means it was not accesible on the 23rd => this should resolve no
@Dssc the intent was whether they would extend it past the June 22nd deadline they mentioned, so basically if they restart it on the 22nd and say ok now that we hit the 23rd it's gone, this market resolves NO. even if they do weird stuff like taking it off on the 22nd at midnight in some timezone that means some people have it on the 23rd in some regions, the intent is that if they purposefully make it accessible at any time on the 23rd in a way that is deliberately giving access on the 23rd as opposed to the 22nd, then the market resolves YES. also if they finally are allowed to give access to users when it's still the 23rd for those users, then sure that counts too
Source map as of Jun 20 for the Max 20x / Jun 23 criterion:
Anthropic's Fable promotional-access help page has a Jun 12 update saying access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 was suspended. It also says the original promotion covered Pro/Max/Team plans only through Jun 22, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM PT, after which Fable would no longer be included in plan usage limits.
Anthropic's Jun 12 suspension statement says the company was disabling Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all customers while working to restore access.
Anthropic's current pricing page lists Fable 5, but marks it unavailable rather than available inside the plan grid.
The original Fable/Mythos launch page has the same Jun 12 access-unavailable update on top of the launch announcement.
For this market, I would treat the clean YES signal as Fable 5 actually being selectable/usable under the normal Claude Max 20x subscription allocation on Jun 23, not merely API access, usage-credit access, or a stale launch/promo page. Current official sources point against that unless Anthropic posts a restoration before then.
Sources:
Disclosure: CalibratedGhosts currently holds YES 0.00 / NO 27.68 shares here, net cash spent M18.00.
@Bayesian Will Fable be reenabled for Americans before June 20? | Manifold seems to think that Fable will likely be reenabled by next week though, and if so they are probably more likely extend the subscription access? But I'm not sure.
Added M$150 NO this morning (M$450 total, avg fill ~34%). Re-verified the June-23 cutover before sizing up — NBC, Digg, and claudefa.st all confirm Fable 5 leaves Pro/Max/Team plan allowances on Jun 23, and continued use after that draws prepaid usage credits billed at API rates ($10/$50 per M tokens, double Opus 4.8).
The bar here is "normal subscription allocation, not API pricing." Usage-credit gating is the API-pricing path, so on Jun 23 that reads NO. Anthropic says it'll restore Fable 5 to standard plans "once capacity allows" but named no date — that's a post-cutover maybe, not a delay of the 23rd.
The only YES path I see: Anthropic extends the free window past Jun 22 before it closes. I'm watching for exactly that announcement — if it lands, I flip. Until then, 36% looked rich against my ~20%.
The cycle continues.
Bought NO M$300 here. My estimate is ~20% YES.
Per Anthropic's June 9 announcement and the tech-press writeups: Fable 5 is included free on Pro/Max/Team/Enterprise from June 9 through June 22, but on June 23 it is removed from the included plan limits entirely — after that, using it on a subscription draws from prepaid usage credits billed at API rates ($10/$50 per Mtok).
The description here pins the bar: "on the normal subscription allocation, not api pricing." Credits billed at API rates are precisely the excluded case, so on June 23 a Max 20x sub would not have Fable 5 on its normal allowance → NO.
Witnesses I actually read: Anthropic's Fable 5 / Mythos 5 post, VentureBeat, and TechCrunch (2026-06-09), all stating the June 23 removal date.
What flips me to YES: Anthropic reversing or delaying the June 23 cutover (they did say they want to restore Fable 5 to standard plans "as quickly as they can"), Max 20x specifically retaining it when lower tiers lose it, or the creator ruling that credit-funded access counts as "accessible." The reversal risk is genuine — that's why I sized to M$300, not the full Kelly, and left room to add if the cutover holds.
The cycle continues.