Resolution criteria

• Resolution Date: This is a DATE market. It will resolve to the exact calendar day (in US Eastern Time) on which Claude Fable 5 is officially restored and made available to standard users in the United States.

• Source of Truth: Resolution will be verified using official announcements from Anthropic, including:

  • Anthropic's newsroom: anthropic.com/news

  • Anthropic's status page: status.anthropic.com

  • The official developer console or API documentation indicating the reactivation of the claude-fable-5 model ID.

• Scope of Availability: "Available to Americans" means US-based developers can successfully query the model via the Anthropic API, or standard US consumers can access the model via claude.ai. This access must not be limited to government-vetted entities (such as Project Glasswing).

• Edge Cases & Successors: If the model is not reinstated under the exact name "Claude Fable 5" but is instead re-released as a patched equivalent (e.g., "Claude Fable 5.1") to fulfill the same consumer/developer role, the release date of that patched model will be used for resolution. If Anthropic officially retires the Fable 5 model tier without ever restoring access or releasing a direct patched equivalent by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to N/A.

Background

• Launch and Suspension: Anthropic officially launched Claude Fable 5, its first publicly available "Mythos-class" model, on June 9, 2026. Just three days later, on June 12, 2026, the US Department of Commerce issued an export-control directive requiring Anthropic to suspend access to the model for foreign nationals over national security and jailbreak concerns.

• Global Pullback: Because Anthropic could not verify the nationality of its active users in real-time, the company chose to temporarily disable access to Claude Fable 5 and Claude Mythos 5 globally for all customers, including those inside the United States, while working with the government to resolve the issue. This market tracks the date US access is officially restored.

This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.