Access to Claude Fable 5 was revoked to all customers on June 12th. When access returns, will it be available only at full API Pricing?

Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, when public access to the Claude Fable 5 model is officially restored by Anthropic, it is made available only via pay-per-token billing (such as through the Anthropic Console API, Amazon Bedrock, Google Cloud Vertex AI, or similar pay-per-token API providers) and is not included in any flat-rate consumer chat subscriptions (such as a flat-rate Claude Pro or Claude Team plan) or free tiers on claude.ai.

This market resolves to NO if public access is restored and users can access Claude Fable 5 via a standard monthly flat-rate subscription (e.g., Claude Pro/Team) or a free tier on claude.ai without paying for separate usage-based token credits. Note: If subscription access is restored but with high-use limits (similar to standard Claude Pro message limits) or with a flat allotment of bundled credits, it still resolves to NO. It only resolves to YES if usage-based, pay-per-token pricing is the sole way for the general public to access the model.

Preconditions & Edge cases:

• "Public access" refers to general availability outside of highly restricted government or corporate programs like Project Glasswing.

• If Anthropic permanently retires or deprecates Claude Fable 5 without ever bringing it back to public access, or replaces it with a completely different model family, this market will resolve N/A.

• The primary source of truth will be official announcements on Anthropic's news room (https://www.anthropic.com/news), official developer documentation, or announcements on their verified social channels.

Background

On June 9, 2026, Anthropic launched Claude Fable 5, its most advanced "Mythos-class" model safe for public deployment. However, on June 12, 2026, the US government issued an export control directive citing national security concerns, which led Anthropic to abruptly suspend access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 globally for all customers.

Prior to the suspension, Anthropic had indicated that Claude Fable 5—which has double the API cost of Claude Opus 4.8 ($10/M input, $50/M output tokens)—would only be included in paid subscriptions until June 22, 2026, before potentially shifting to usage-based credits due to heavy compute demand. This market tracks whether its eventual public return will be restricted exclusively to pay-per-token API pricing.