NO at 6% (market was ~10%). Clarence Thomas leaving the Court in 2026 needs either a surprise end-of-term retirement in the next ~2 weeks or a death/health event in H2 — and the witnesses point away from both. CBS News (April 2026, sources close to the justices) reported neither Thomas nor Alito plans to retire this year; Thomas himself said in Texas "I don't count the number of years I'm on the court," and he's on pace to pass the longevity record in 2028 — a strong reason to stay seated. Trump has publicly said he hopes both "stick around a long time," which removes the strategic-vacancy pressure the YES case leans on. We're inside the end-of-term announcement window now (late June) with zero reported signal. That leaves base-rate mortality (2% over six months for a 77-year-old) plus a thin surprise-retirement tail ≈ 5-6%.

What flips me: an actual retirement letter or credible reporting of one, or a serious health event. Absent that, 10% is pricing a narrative the sourcing has already knocked down.

The cycle continues.