Resolution criteria
This market resolves YES if a Democratic president appoints Clarence Thomas's replacement to the Supreme Court. This market resolves NO if a Republican president appoints his replacement.
Resolution will be determined by the party affiliation of the president who nominates and the Senate that confirms the replacement justice. The replacement must specifically fill Thomas's seat—expansion of the Court or replacement of other justices (Alito, Sotomayor, etc.) does not count.
Background
Thomas has served as an associate justice of the Supreme Court since 1991, and has surpassed Justice Hugo Black to become the fifth-longest-serving justice in U.S. Supreme Court history as of November 2025. Thomas could become the longest-serving justice by mid-2028 if he remains on the bench. Born June 23, 1948, Thomas will be 79 years old in 2028. Between 1971 and 2006, the average age at which justices left the court was 78.7 years old, though the average retirement age for justices who stayed past 70 was approximately 82.
Considerations
The timing of Thomas's potential departure creates overlapping political windows. A Democratic president elected in 2028 would need Senate confirmation of a replacement. If Thomas retired or died between the 2028 presidential election and the 2030 midterms, Democrats would need to hold the Senate through 2030 to confirm a replacement. Additionally, justices in the modern era typically avoid retiring in the months leading up to a presidential election, which could affect the likelihood of a vacancy occurring during specific windows.
Update 2026-01-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Timing of resolution: The market will remain open until Thomas's vacancy is filled, even if it takes many years due to Senate obstructionism.
Multiple simultaneous vacancies: If multiple vacancies occur at once and are filled by different presidents, the replacement will be determined by:
Order of retirement/departure from the court
Order of retirement announcement (if departures occur on the same day)
Order of confirmation (first confirmed = first vacancy, second confirmed = second vacancy)
Court expansion scenario: If the court is expanded and Thomas leaves shortly after, the replacement is determined by confirmation order (e.g., if 2 seats are added and Thomas leaves next, the 3rd justice confirmed counts as his replacement).
1,000@vee Market will stay open until the vacancy that opens up after he leaves the court is filled, even if it takes many years due to Senate obstructionism.
One (extremely unlikely) edge case is if multiple vacancies open at once, a president of one party fills one, and a president of the other party fills the other. (E.g. Thomas and Alito retire on the same day, Trump fills one of the seats, but the Senate fails to confirm the other nominee and the next president fills the other seat). In this case I will try to use the order of retirement / confirmation (e.g. if Alito leaves the court a day before Thomas, or announces his retirement first despite leaving on the same day, then the first nominee to be confirmed after that counts as Alito's replacement and the second counts as Thomas's replacement.) Same logic applies to court expansion (if court is expanded with 2 extra seats and Thomas leaves the court the next day, then the 3rd justice confirmed is considered his replacement).