Will Aubrey de Grey get AIDS by 2035
4
Ṁ110Ṁ4452036
3%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
https://www.cdc.gov/hiv/group/age/diagnoses.html says only ~2700 people are diagnosed with HIV in the USA (which I assume comes with AIDS) every year, so ~30k people of this age will get it by 2035. But also the USA has over 50M people in this age group overall, which suggests the chance is <0.1%.
People are also trading
Related questions
By 2050, will there be a cure to aging?
43% chance
Will Aubrey de Grey be dead before his 80th birthday?
36% chance
Will AellaGirl get AIDS by 2035
4% chance
Will Aubrey de Grey ever win a Nobel Prize?
8% chance
Will HIV/AIDS be considered a "curable" disease by the end of 2030?
50% chance
Will Jose Luis Ricon get AIDS by 2040?
10% chance
By 2060, will there be a cure to aging?
46% chance
Will Aubrey de Grey be cryonically frozen?
58% chance
Will All Diseases and Aging be Effectively Cured by 2035?
11% chance
Will a vaccine for HIV be approved by the FDA by 2030?
49% chance