Will Artemis II launch before May?
17
Ṁ100Ṁ300Apr 30
59%
chance
15
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if the Artemis II mission launches on or before April 31st
Update 2026-02-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A launch before April (e.g., in March) will also resolve YES.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
@LarsOsborne March is currently off the table https://x.com/NASAAdmin/status/2025249086908125630, but based off how I wrote the description, theoretically if Artemis II launches in March anyway this would resolve to YES.
People are also trading
Related questions
Will Artemis II launch before 2027?
86% chance
Artemis III launches before 2028?
4% chance
Will Artemis III launch before 2027?
2% chance
Will Artemis II fly before Starship Flight 12?
37% chance
What day will Artemis II launch?
Will Artemis II launch in March?
1% chance
Will Artemis II be delayed?
22% chance
When will Artemis II launch?
5/25/26
Artemis III launches before 2030?
49% chance
Artemis 3 Launch Date