Will Resolve yes If any new Qwen

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, between June 12, 2026, and December 01, 2027, at 00:00 CET, the official Qwen team (Alibaba Cloud) publicly releases the weights (e.g., on Hugging Face or ModelScope) of any new or previously closed-weight Qwen-family model with a total parameter count of 100 Billion (100B) or greater.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.

Key Rules & Definitions:

• "New" vs. "Existing": The model weights must be officially released for the first time after June 12, 2026. Already released open-weight models with $\ge$100B parameters as of June 12, 2026 (including Qwen1.5-110B, Qwen3-235B-A22B, Qwen3.5-122B-A10B, and Qwen3.5-397B-A17B) do not count toward a YES resolution.

• Closed-to-Open Weights: If an existing closed-weight or API-only model (such as Qwen3.6-Max-Preview or Qwen3.6-Plus) has its weights officially released to the public during the market window, this will resolve the market to YES, provided its total parameter count is verified to be $\ge$100B.

• Parameter Count: For Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architectures, the total parameter count (not the active parameter count per token) will be used to determine the threshold. For example, a model with 120B total parameters and 10B active parameters counts as $\ge$100B.

• Official Releases Only: The release must be an official artifact published by the Qwen team / Alibaba Cloud. Third-party fine-tunes, merges, or community-reconstructed weights do not qualify.

• Source of Truth: Resolution will be verified via the Official Qwen GitHub, the Qwen Hugging Face Organization, or the official Qwen Blog.

Background

Alibaba's Qwen team has historically been a major proponent of open-weights models, releasing massive models like the Qwen3.5-397B-A17B MoE and the dense Qwen1.5-110B. However, in early 2026, the team made a notable pivot toward proprietary, closed-weight models with the API-only launch of their flagship Qwen3.6-Max-Preview. While they continue to release open-weights models at smaller sizes—such as the Qwen3.6-27B and Qwen3.6-35B-A3B—the community is highly focused on whether Alibaba will return to open-sourcing its frontier, 100B+ class architectures.