Will a second Asian language novel win a Hugo award for Best Novel by EOY 2030?
15
Ṁ1kṀ5712031
64%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The first was The Three-Body Problem by Cixin Liu (translated by Ken Liu) in 2015
Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hugo_Award_for_Best_Novel
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Which novels will be *nominated* for a Hugo award in 2026
Will a completely AI-written novel win a Hugo Award by 2035?
14% chance
Will Sam Hughes (qntm) win a Hugo Award by end 2026
22% chance
Will George R. R. Martin ever win the Hugo Award for Best Novel?
9% chance
Will someone from FutureHouseSF win a Nobel prize by EOY 2037?
27% chance
Will an AI be able to write a passable novel before 2028?
75% chance
Will janus/repligate, AlkahestMu, or Celeste appear in a Ken Liu novel by EOY2031?
43% chance
Will a movie that has at least some AI-generated dialogue win an Oscar by EOY 2028?
22% chance
Will Esperanto be dethroned as the most widely spoken conlang by 2030?
28% chance
Will an AI-generated script win an Oscar for Best Original Screenplay by 2030?
5% chance