Resolves when I (deferring heavily to other Manifold mods/superusers who are paying more attention to this subject) am ~90% confident that Satoshi Nakamoto has been identified. If Satoshi is revealed to be a collaboration between multiple people, it resolves roughly to the best estimate of the % that each are responsible for Satoshi's identity.
I will also defer to consensus reporting, the Wikipedia page, etc. For example, if the Wiki page decisively lists one individual as Satoshi Nakamoto, that would likely be sufficient to resolve, and if the NYT, WSJ, WaPo, and Guardian all put out articles saying that the drama is over and Satoshi's identity has been conclusively revealed (as the same person), that would also probably be sufficient to resolve.
Market will be extended indefinitely until more definitive evidence emerges.
I think there are reasons to believe that AI will be able to unearth convincing evidence within a few years, but I ultimately don't have a horse in this race. I've only loosely followed the drama. Right now, I think no individual person is much more than ~50% likely to be Satoshi, but I also haven't devoted much time to thinking about this so I don't have particularly strong beliefs. I think I will be fairly truth-seeking in evaluating this market, as I don't know much about these people or have any allegiances to particular crypto ideologies or whatnot.
I WILL NOT BET IN THIS MARKET TO STAY AS OBJECTIVE AS POSSIBLE.
1,000People are also trading
Re: Adam Back
https://x.com/i/status/2042039637984596459
I think this is strong evidence that he is not Satoshi by himself. He could still be part of a group Satoshi, but 20%+ odds of Back seem high for this - is it really ~40% odds he's one half of a Satoshi duo, based on a NYT article full of at best weak evidence and which doesn't seem to consider this hypothesis itself?
@draaglom personally I'm most sympathetic to Hal Finney-related theories, and we should also put a decent weight on it not being a core Cypherpunks member; the Tor precedent suggests that development by someone in the US govt is also quite plausible
This recent NYT obsession-article about Back isn't even the first time someone's tried analyzing Satoshi's text in that way. Someone did the same analysis in 2014, & concluded it were Dorian Nakamoto.
>(deferring heavily to other Manifold mods/superusers who are paying more attention to this subject)
It is interesting to decide you don't know enough to know, but that obviously a mod or super-user would know. How does that give anyone credibility on knowing the true identity of Satoshi, something people have been investigating continuously since BitCoin's emergence? Why would a mod or superuser be more likely to have expertise on this particular mystery?
@ChurlishGambit since this is ultimately likely to be a subjective market, with a lack of complete public consensus, I'm doing my best to ensure traders that I will not be exercising my own judgment in an unintuitive manner against the public consensus. I'm not going to defer to a single mod with a strongly held opinion that runs contrary to what reasonable people would likely conclude. In general, Manifold moderators are selected for their ability to fairly resolve complex markets and act in a way in accordance with the interest of users on this platform rather than their personal interests.