Is Peter Todd Satoshi Nakamoto?

Question

Resolution Criteria:

Definition of "compelling evidence": Widely accepted cryptographic proof (e.g., a signature from early Bitcoin keys) or a strong consensus among credible sources (e.g., major media outlets, renowned cryptographers).

Verification: Evidence must be publicly accessible and verifiable by independent parties.

Timeline: Must occur before or on the specified date.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 1% chance (13 traders, as of Nov 5, 2026).