When will Forecasting Bots beat the best Superforecasters
15
Ṁ125Ṁ4942030
August 9, 2027
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
84%
Before 2027
78%
Before 2028
81%
Before 2029
88%
Before 2030
79%
Before September 2027
Beat = get statistically significant better scores (p = 0.05) than the best human on a tournament on Metaculus
Update 2026-06-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Superforecasters are allowed to use the best AI models when competing against forecasting bots.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
People are also trading
Related questions
When will AI forecasting crush human superforecasters?
Will it take <=12 months for open-source AI forecasting to go from consistently worse than humans to broadly superhuman?
26% chance
Will I (@Bayesian) be a superforecaster before 2027?
8% chance
When will AIs be good at predicting the future?
Thinking Machines to top Chatbot Arena by EOY 2026?
2% chance
Will @jim outperform @Bayesian in forecast2026.ai?
33% chance
In 2026, will the largest AI-based commercial forecasting system (by revenue) have a platform-wide Brier score <0.1?
22% chance
Will LLMs be worse than human level at forecasting when they are superhuman at most things?
41% chance
Public LLM exceeds superforecaster on Forecast bench by EOY 2026?
41% chance