When will Fable be publicly accessible again?

MANIFOLD

Ṁ1kṀ8.8k

2028

January 18, 2027

ALL

Before June 15, 2026

June 16-22, 2026

23%

June 23-30, 2026

61%

July 1-15, 2026

20%

July 16-31, 2026

August 2026

September 2026 or later

Fable no longer accessible to anyone while Anthropic implements controls against non-US nationals accessing the model:

Anthropic (@AnthropicAI) on X

The US government, citing national security authorities, has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States, including foreign national Anthropic employees. The net effect of

Update 2026-06-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): US-only access counts as resolution — the market resolves when Fable becomes accessible at all, regardless of geographic restrictions. This is not contingent on US regulations being relaxed.

Market context

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Fable

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Fable reenabled for Europeans before July 1?

10% chance

Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by June 30?

30% chance

Will Anthropic restore access to Fable 5 to all customers by the end of June?

7% chance

Will Anthropic restore access to Fable 5 for US customers by the end of June?

24% chance

Will the public officially be able to access Fable 5 again by the end of.July?

66% chance

When Fable access returns, will it be available as part of the monthly paid plan?

42% chance

Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by July 31?

83% chance

When will Anthropic's API customers get access to Fable 5 again?

Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by July 15?

56% chance

Will Anthropic remove the data retention rule on Fable 5 before July?

3% chance

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This should be dependent but isn't for some reason

@100Anonymous true. I didn't know that was a separate option

bought Ṁ100 NO

@ae What if they allow US only access?

@xjp that counts and is my assumption as to what is most likely to happen. This question is not about the US relaxing its regulations, it's about the model being accessible at all.