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MANIFOLD
What will be Anthropic’s GAAP net income on their audited 2026 Income Statement?
4
Ṁ1.4kṀ362
2027
52%
> $0
52%
> -$1 billion
50%
> -$5 billion
50%
> -$10 billion
50%
> -$15 billion
50%
> -$20 billion
50%
> -$25 billion
57%
> -$30 billion

I’ve been seeing tons of markets on ARR, but given that Anthropic seems poised to IPO it makes much more sense to bet on GAAP net income versus numbers nobody can verify

  • Update 2026-08-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If there is no audited 2026 Income Statement, the market will resolve to N/A.

  • Update 2026-08-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The 2026 audited Income Statement does not need to be released by the original close date.

    • The creator will extend the close date as needed to wait for its release.

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How does this resolve if there is no such statement?

@EvanDaniel N/A. Though I will note GAAP requires releasing comparative income statements from the past 3 years when issuing your 10k, so we will almost certainly see it

@JaundicedBaboon Does it have to be released by question close date?

@EvanDaniel No. I’ll will extend as needed

@JaundicedBaboon

When creating set markets, if the mana subsidy per question is 100 or more, you’ll get 20 mana trader bonus,

I added 150 mana to the market so there is now 800 (100x 8 questions)

As previously it was 650 mana which meant it would have only given you 6 mana per trader

@Jack1 good to know. Thanks for helping out! :)

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