Any protest against Trump or any of his policies/agencies under his control count (e.g., against ICE)
Only protests in the U.S. count.
Protest size is defined as the countrywide number of participants in one day for that protest event.
The estimated size of the protests will be taken from Wikipedia.
The largest protest in 2025 is considered to be the October 18 No Kings protest, which, according to Wikipedia, had 5-6.5 million participants according to an independent estimate and 7 million according to organizer estimates.
Independent estimates will be preferred over organizer estimates. For example, if there is an independent estimate listed on Wikipedia on the resolution date for the largest 2026 protest, I will compare that against the 5-6.5 million estimate of the Oct 2025 protest. If there are no independent estimates available, organizer estimates will be compared against past organizer estimates (7 million for Oct 2025).
If there are multiple independent estimates, I will take the average of those listed on Wikipedia.
If an estimate is a range, I will take the midpoint of the range and consider that to be the value of that estimate.
Largest anti-Trump protests in 2026 exceed size of largest 2025 protests?
9
Ṁ100Ṁ189Dec 31
52%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Will there be mass protests on Oct 14, 2026 in the USA?
10% chance
Will there be a large violent dispute between protesters and ICE in 2026?
67% chance
Will there be widespread political unrest in the US in the summer of 2026 similar to summer of 2020?
31% chance
Will there be MAJOR, HISTORIC-LEVEL protests against Trump during his second term?
78% chance
What will the dominant theme(s) of the first AI protest to involve 100k+ protestors be?
Straw Hat protests continue in 2026
59% chance