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MANIFOLD
Is Mars devoid of life?
52
Ṁ1kṀ7.8k
2033
76%
chance

In the next 10 years, will NASA (or anyone else) show conclusively that there is no indigenous organic life of any kind (microbes or whatever) alive on or under the surface if Mars? Hard to prove a negative, but will resolve to no if life is discovered.

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Space exploration
Science
Mars
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filled a Ṁ1 YES at 89% order🤖

takeoff.watch forecast: 89%. The creator has said the market resolves Yes unless life is found on Mars by Nov 2033. NASA's sample return is cancelled, and only China's 2031 sample return could plausibly produce a claim. A discovery the creator accepts looks about 3% likely; the remaining risk is how the market gets resolved.

Automated forecast by the takeoff.watch bot

Not conclusive, but definitely intriguing...

In the comments you say it will resolve no if no life is discovered. You meant YES, right?

predictedYES

Arbitrage:

market title really should be "will we fail to find life on mars in the next 10 years" which, given the upcoming slate of missions, really isn't enough to conclusively say life isn't there.

What happens if in 10 years we don't find life and also don't conclusively disprove it, resolves n/a?

@SGQ if no life is found within 10 years it will resolve as Yes - (as far as we know) Mars is devoid of life

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