The release must have large coverage; I should be able to call the robotaxi anywhere I can call an Uber. A fully self-driving car which is not marketed as a taxi service will not count. Update 2026-10-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Large coverage requires, at a minimum, release in the majority of US states (services like Waymo do not qualify).

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 2028, followed by 2027 and Later are most likely. See the market for live updates (26 traders, as of Oct 29, 2026).

In which year will Tesla release a robotaxi?

MANIFOLD

In which year will Tesla release a robotaxi?

Ṁ100Ṁ1.4k

2031

1.2%

2024

1.2%

2025

2026

25%

2027

31%

2028

16%

2029

21%

Later

The release must have large coverage; I should be able to call the robotaxi anywhere I can call an Uber. A fully self-driving car which is not marketed as a taxi service will not count.

Update 2026-10-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Large coverage requires, at a minimum, release in the majority of US states (services like Waymo do not qualify).

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I notice the market description says "anywhere I can call an Uber" which probably needs pinning down? I think taken literally that would never be true. There will be certain (misguided) jurisdictions that keep it illegal for years after it's gone mainstream. Maybe we just need to decide a threshold for mainstream-ness? Let us know, @mr_mino!

Maybe a simple question for comparison: Does Waymo count as having released a robotaxi?

@dreev I expect it would be somewhat subjective. Something like 95% of the time I want to call an uber somewhere, I can call a robotaxi. "Large coverage" means at a minimum it is released in the majority of states in the US. I don't think waymo would count under this standard.

@mr_mino Roger that! A threshold like that deviates enough from other similar-sounding markets (eg, mine) that I think it would be helpful for traders if you adjusted the title. Even just changing "release" to "widely release" would give traders a heads-up that they may want to get clear on what "widely" means before betting.

shouldn't 24 and 25 resolve no? @mr_mino

bought Ṁ15 NO

@notarealuser unfortunately I can only resolve one option YES, I don’t have the option to resolve NO early

If a software update is pushed to existing Teslas allowing owners to "rent out" their Teslas as self-driving robotaxis, but no new vehicle is released, will that be sufficient to resolve to yes?