In 2026, will the largest AI-based commercial forecasting system (by revenue) have a platform-wide Brier score <0.1? | Manifold

In 2026, will the largest AI-based commercial forecasting system (by revenue) have a platform-wide Brier score <0.1?

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This question automatically resolves NO if the market for commercial AI forecasting, involving for-profit companies, does not exist or has less than $1B in revenue during 2026. Otherwise, resolves to whether the commercial AI forecasting service with the highest 2026 revenue publishes data showing a platform-wide Brier score below 0.1.

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https://x.com/Research_FRI/status/1975909516777537614

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